I've been sports betting a decent amount in the past year and typically avoided parlay bets because everything I'd casually read or heard was that they were sucker plays. Just thinking about a stone cold lock where a parlay would obviously be better, it seemed like there had to be a break even point where they had the same value. The following is some brief analysis for 2-team parlays vs straight betting. The results are kind of surprising so I'm hoping someone can correct me if I'm overlooking something. Note that this all assumes in the parlay option you have two teams you judge to have the same edge, and also the parlay pays 16/5.

A few days ago I was lurking the HSNL thread and as zeejustin was looking trying to sell action, he estimated his ROI in the range of 35-50+%. That seemed absurdly high so I thought I'd see if it was plausible.

There are 48 players, 29 listed as pros and 19 amateurs. Of the 1MM buy-in, $111,111 is raked (donated). Making initial assumption all players are equally skilled, they each have an -11% ROI right off the bat. Next I listed the players in rough order, from weakest to strongest. From here I redistributed their EV (don't know if that is the proper term) making a few extra assumptions. Let's say each pro has at least 0% ROI (maybe generous for "Malibu"?) and I gave a 10% ROI to the top ten pros. This already forces the amateurs to be particularly bad, and there's still a bunch of b/e pros. I rounded off the worst six amateurs to an even -50% ROI. I decided to redistribute that back to the stronger amateurs (not unreasonable as a few went deep) with a little extra for the best pro. Results:

Richard Yong 50
Paul Phua 50
Frederic Banjout 50
Guy Laliberté 50
Bill Perkins 50
Phil Ruffin 50
Bob Bright 67
Ilya Bulychev 67
Cary Katz 67
John Morgan 67
Paul Newey 67
Chamath Palihapitiya 67
Brandon Steven 67
Talal Shakerchi 67
Mikhail Smirnov 67
Rick Salomon 92
Bobby Baldwin 92
David Einhorn 92
Dan Shak 92
Giovanni "Malibu" Guarascio 100
Roland De Wolfe 100
Antonio Esfandiari 100
Philipp Gruissem 100
Mike Sexton 100
Jens Kyllönen 100
Haralabos Voulgaris 100
Daniel Negreanu 100
Jonathan Duhamel 100
Vivek Rajkumar 100
Tobias Reinkemeier 100
Andrew Robl 100
Eugene Katchalov 100
Nick Schulman 100
Noah Schwartz 100
Michael Mizrachi 100
Justin Smith 100
Sam Trickett 100
Phil Hellmuth 100
Gus Hansen 110
Erik Seidel 110
Tom Dwan 110
Phil Galfond 110
Bertrand Grospellier 110
Brian Rast 110
Ben Lamb 110
Tom Marchese 110
Jason Mercier 110
Phil Ivey 112


Note that in the second column 100 = 0% ROI, 110 = 10% ROI, etc. Even though I remember sharkscoping people at my table and fist pumping when I find out they're -20%, these numbers may actually be too high for the amateurs (and thus too low for the pros) since the prize structure seems skewed towards first/second places.

So the past week or so I've lost 50k+ playing mid/high stakes PLO, both live and online. This was a substantial part of my roll and I'm a sad panda. I just wanted to see if there's anyone else who've gone through a pretty crushing downswing and how they dealt with it.

Will be in Vegas for a week starting this weekend. Any recommendations as far as places to eat? Will be staying at Cosmo. Been a few times before and know about the pizza place and Holstein's. Overwhelmed with all the places in the LVL 2p2 forum, wanted to see what the folks over here liked. Able to occasionally go off the strip (have a friend in the local area).

Also, is laundry service reasonable or is it better to pack enough clothes for the entire trip?

Heading there this morning for the weekend, friend's getting married. I know some of the users here are familiar with the area, anything I should do or places to eat at while I'm there?

Just picked up one of these (the stand, not the asian):



I've looked for a chair for a long time but never found anything I really liked. At least with this I can sit on the couch or lay in bed easier. Also recommend an Ergotron for those with desks.

I really like these speakers too but don't know if they're worth $500. How says Leggo?



Been starting to play more golf lately and need to get a set of irons. I've looked at some Titleist and Mizuno irons, also some Japanese ones called Yururi that look pretty sick. Recommendations for a set?

Flying down tomorrow and plan to play cash and the NL event this weekend. Will probably stay at Gold Coast.

At the local casino, someone said they often played single table qualifiers for the WSOP events. Are these soft/worth the time?

I was thinking I'd play Aria and/or Venetian. Where's the best place for PLO games (bb = $5)? Is PLO worth playing during the series?

Also down to grab food with anyone here, or gambol gambol on bowling or Chinese. Any other suggestions or tips appreciated.

I've read quite a few posts regarding this, but I figure the information keeps changing anyway.

I'm trying to find a decent room on the strip May 5-8. Does any have any hotel room comps they want to sell? Also appreciate any hotel suggestions or tips, thanks.

Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $563.65
MP1: $67
Hero (MP2): $502.85
CO: $561.20
BTN: $208.45
SB: $147
BB: $158.35
UTG: $291.25
UTG+1: $219.40

Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (MP2)
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $6, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $21, CO calls $21, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls $15

Flop: ($66) 6 3 8 (3 Players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $412, CO calls $412, UTG+2 folds

Turn: ($890) T (2 Players)
Hero bets $69.85 and is All-In, CO calls $69.85

River: ($1,029.70) 8 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $1,029.70 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K A and LOST (-$502.85 NET)
CO showed 8 8 and WON $1,026.70 (+$523.85 NET)

Is there any software out there to help against this sort of thing?

I thought It'd be fun to bet on the hometown Seahawks. Apparently they're a 250-1 longshot. I've been looking for a place to book it, but the best odds I can find are 150-1 at sportsbook. Do I need to be in vegas to get those odds, or will everything I find always be < 250-1?

Let's say the Seahawks road to the SB goes something like this: Saints, Falcons, Bears, Pats.
Saints: injuries and not quite as good as last year. Plus Hawks can step up at home so => .4
Falcons: this will be difficult. => .2
Bears: Seahawks have already beaten them at home, also not as good as their record. => .4
Pats: I think they're overrated and won't make the SB. Still, they're the favorite. => .3

.4 * .2 * .4 * .3 = 0.0096 or slightly less than 1% chance to win the SB. I break even at 0.4% so this is a snap?!